A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
